Hello everyone!

Lt. Gen. Paul Ostrowski (Ret.) is the Director of Supply, Production & Distribution of Operation Warp Speed. He said in a TV interview today that vaccines will roll out over several months. He said that “100% of Americans that want the vaccine will have vaccine by that point in time [June 2021]. We will have 300 million doses will be available to the American public well before then.”

I’m a lawyer, not a medic, and not a public health expert. I know that there are anti-vaxxers out there. So the question is this: if Lt. Gen. Ostrowski is correct and millions of Americans (not all of course) are taking the available vaccines, will that persuade Governors to allow in-person bar exams for July 2021?

I’d still put the odds at 50/50, if not worse for the following reasons. If vaccines will be available in June 2021, people need to take them and that takes time. Then a Governor needs to see that all that vaccinating is going on. Then more time will go by and a Governor will need to make a decision. And if the logistics behind an in-person exam require that certain things must occur by April or May to make a July Bar Exam happen — not saying that’s true, I don’t know — then June vaccine availability will be too late to make an in-person exam happen.

As of November 30, 2020, it seems that a remote exam for July 2021 seems more likely.

One other thing to keep in mind. What is the prevailing sentiment from the Cal. Supreme Court about remote v. in-person exams? From the Cal Bar? Maybe the Cal Bar says we’ve saved tons of money from room rental fees (though I doubt it since applicant fees are presumably paying for all of that) or saved time/money for other logistics that they are happy with a remote testing environment and don’t want to change it?

Or what if students like the idea of not having to go outside of their house to take the exam? What if they like taking a rest between questions or not having to get a hotel or fly somewhere (especially for out of state or international students) to take the test? What’s the prevailing sentiment?

My guess is that the Cal SCT and the Cal Bar like the idea of the old status quo. Maybe some students with necessary accommodations might be able to take the exam from home? But otherwise, I’m confident that we’ll be back to an in-person exam environment for sure by February 2022. July 2021? Maybe. I would think it’s likely if vaccines were widely distributed by March 1 or so and that people took them and positivity rates dramatically declined by April 1. That might give enough incentive to a Governor to allow in-person testing and allow a Board of Bar Examiners enough time to logistically make it happen.

We shall see!

Hello everyone!

In a typical year, the Cal Bar Exam would have occurred on the last Tuesday and Wednesday in July (July 28-29 to be exact), and the Cal Bar would normally publish those results today, November 20, at 6 pm. As a result, the February 2021 Cal Bar Exam season officially begins tonight.

Fear not, you won’t have to start studying immediately. But if this season is remotely typical of other February Bar seasons, spaces in 1-on-1 tutoring programs will fill up quickly. Please reach out to me on calweasel@sbcglobal.net or (510) 301 2791 and I will set up a meeting for us to discuss tutoring options.

We do want to get started sooner than later. The last two weeks of December are a period where people typically promise to do a lot of work and then never do. Usually that’s due to quarter-end deadlines, year-end deadlines, family issues, health issues (and that was before COVID!), or even more fun, the superfecta combination of all four. Also, there’s one less week in the Bar season than usual due to five weeks in October, not November.

Anyhow, if you’re interested in the February 2021 Bar Exam, now is the time to start finding a tutor and getting started. Email or call me now and let’s generate some points!

Hello everyone!

Today I found something that I wanted to share with you. Like most of you reading this, I’m no expert on the COVID. I’m a lawyer and a tutor, and not a scientist, and I sure as hell am not Scott Atlas.

I found an analysis in National Geographic, November 2020 issue, at 34. It shows that potential emergency authorization would begin January 2021 for a vaccine to be distributed to high risk groups such as first responders and the elderly. Then the potential approval of wide-scale distribution of a vaccine may take place in September 2021, and that’s what the authors call an “ambitious scenario.” Sadly I can’t seem to copy the graphic here so you’ll have to go on the written description here.

If the graphic is anywhere near accurate then it would seem that the July 2021 Bar Exam will be online, and that the February 2022 Bar Exam would be at least 50/50 to be online as well. Again, I’m no scientist and curves can flatten over time due to external circumstances. But at least as of October 28, 2020, that’s what I’m seeing.

Note the interesting stuff:

1) the NCBE will equate the MBE, so that means that states like California don’t need the psychometrician or whoever they used to help make the MBE a reality for October 2020, and

2) Do we have 100 questions again for Feb. 2021? Or 200? Nobody knows. We shall see!

3) 3 states have already signed up for the online option (NY, Connecticut, and one other).

From the NCBE’s site:

NCBE Announces Initial Plans for Remote Option for February 2021 Bar Exam

NCBE today announced initial plans that will allow jurisdictions the option to provide the bar exam remotely in February 2021, since challenges related to COVID-19 will likely still be present next year. More details will be provided in the coming weeks.

To provide flexibility to jurisdictions and candidates as we all continue to navigate the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, NCBE plans to make a full set of bar exam materials available for a remote administration in February 2021 to be held on the same dates as the in-person administration (February 23–24, 2021). Each jurisdiction will select which mode it will use for its administration.

NCBE plans to equate the MBE, calculate scaled scores for the written components, and provide UBE and MBE score transfer services for both the in-person and the remote administrations.

Additional details will be announced in the next few weeks as jurisdictions and NCBE complete their review of the October remote administration, which was the first time the bar exam has been given to candidates testing in their own environments using their own computers.

As usual there will be a score band within which some applicants will receive a second read. The Bar posted this within the last 24 hours. Here’s the info:

Phased Grading

All written answers submitted by applicants who completed the exam in its entirety are read at least once before pass/fail decisions are made. Based on the results of empirical studies relative to reliability, scores have been established for passing and failing after one reading of the exam. For applicants whose scores after the first read are near the required passing score, all answer books are read a second time, and scores of the first and second readings are averaged. The total averaged score after two readings is then used to make a second set of pass/fail decisions.

To pass the examination in the first phase of grading, an applicant must have a total scale score (after one reading) of at least 1390 out of 2000 possible points. Those with total scale scores after one reading below 1350 fail the exam. If the applicant’s total scale score is at least 1350 but less than 1390 after one reading, their answers are read a second time by a different set of graders. If the applicant’s averaged total scale score after two readings is 1390 or higher, the applicant passes the exam. Applicants with averaged total scale scores of less than 1390 fail the exam.

Hello everyone.

Seismic change for the exam!

Here’s what we know. The next Cal Bar Exam will take place on October 5-6. It’ll be online. What they didn’t say (but what is true according to an NCBE email and the statements of DC, MD, PA, TN, AZ, and TX) is that the MBE will be 100 questions. 50 questions in 90 minutes. Then 15 minute break. Then 50 questions in 90 minutes.

Not sure what changed the minds of the Cal Supreme Court justices, who said there was no reason to change the cut score not that long ago (and this was after even the Cal Bar advocated lowering the cut score). But I’m certain nobody is complaining. So 1390 means what? It means that you will likely need a 60% to barely pass on the first read, not 62-63% (which is what the pass line effectively was since 2007), and not 66-67% (which is what the pass line effectively was prior to 2007). Basically you can miss one more minor issue and still pass.

More significantly, on a 200 question MBE exam, that would mean you could miss 5 more MBE’s and still be OK (i.e., 120 instead of 124-125).

It’s a different day, folks! Let’s generate some points!